HKTDC Forecasts 8-9% Hong Kong Export Growth in 2026 Driven by AI Electronics Demand

The Hong Kong Trade Development Council forecasts that Hong Kong's exports will grow by between 8% and 9% in 2026, according to its annual Export Outlook report. This projection follows better-than-anticipated export performance in 2025 and is set to be driven by sustained robust demand for artificial intelligence-related electronics products. According to the HKTDC 4Q25 Export Confidence Index, 53.2% of exporters see rising demand for AI and new technology-related electronic consumer goods as the factor most likely to boost their 2026 business. This is crucial given that the electronics sector accounts for more than 70% of Hong Kong's total export value.

Irina Fan, Director of HKTDC Research, noted that while 2025 was a year of heightened uncertainty, 2026 should bring greater clarity on global trade, particularly after the Chinese Mainland and the US reached a trade agreement in November. She stated that US tariffs are no longer among Hong Kong exporters' three biggest concerns for 2026. Fan acknowledged that uncertainties remain, as US imports from different countries are subject to different tariff levels, prompting business leaders worldwide to reorganize activities to optimize cost advantages. She explained that Chinese Mainland exports to the US will be subject to a 20% reciprocal tariff rate until November 2026, putting China-based suppliers on par with Southeast Asian counterparts while giving them an advantage over countries facing higher rates. More insights are available on the HKTDC Research website.

The HKTDC Export Confidence Index 4Q25, also released today, shows both the Current Performance Index (51.4) and the Expectation Index (51.9) staying above the 50-point watershed level, indicating anticipated future export growth. Kenneth Lee, Head of the HKTDC Research's Special Project and Business Advisory Section, said that for 42.0% of respondents, the Chinese Mainland was the highest priority market for expansion over the next two years, followed by the rest of Asia (30.3%) and the ASEAN bloc (18.9%). Exporters in almost every sector saw scaling up activities on the Chinese Mainland as their priority.

Detailed analysis of the survey highlights positive market prospects and sector performance. The Market Expectation Sub-Index shows significant growth potential for the Chinese Mainland (57.2) and the ASEAN bloc (57.0), while the US index declined to 38.0 due to ongoing trade environment uncertainties. Among industries, Jewellery (54.8), Electronics (52.4), Timepieces (51.6), and Equipment/Materials (51.1) have expansionary expectations for the year ahead. The full HKTDC Export Confidence Index 4Q25 report provides further details.

Despite overall positive sentiments, the survey identifies potential challenges, including rising labour and production costs (53.9%), growing logistics challenges (38.8%), and declining overseas orders due to general economic slowdown (38.2%). These factors underscore the complex landscape Hong Kong exporters will navigate in 2026, even as AI product demand lays a solid foundation for growth. The findings are detailed in the Hong Kong 2026 Export Outlook report.